Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 759 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 12Z Fri Mar 31 2023 - 12Z Tue Apr 04 2023 ...Overview... The medium range Alaska period begins late week with troughing across the mainland while a surface low is present over the Gulf of Alaska, causing some modest precipitation for the Panhandle while the bigger threat may be gap winds on its backside across parts of the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island/Kenai Peninsula. Meanwhile a persistent surface and upper ridge is forecast farther west across the northern Pacific/eastern Aleutians, causing the storm track to be pushed toward the western Aleutians, while upper energy could spill into the mainland this weekend before the flow may flatten a bit early next week. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement initially, with a Gulf of Alaska upper low embedded within troughing across the mainland and a weak upper ridge to the west. Models diverge somewhat with the positioning/axis/amount of energy spilling into the mainland this weekend to the east of the Pacific-Aleutians-Bering Sea upper ridge, but with no true outliers noted. Additionally, some differences emerge with a low coming west of that ridge over the weekend. The CMC suite seems to be a bit east of consensus across the Aleutians. Model variations increase as the period progresses from that point. Thus the WPC model blend was based on a deterministic 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET blend at first, and increased the EC and GEFS ensemble mean proportions by early next week. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Gales are expected across portions of the AK Peninsula and Upper Aleutians from Thursday into Friday as a cyclone develops in the northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska. This system will produce precipitation for south-central Alaska and the Panhandle but amounts should remain modest. Precipitation is also possible across the Aleutians, which may be locally heavy depending on the low track, and energy passing through the mainland could lead to some light snow there at times. The North Slope is likely to be the coldest area across the state with some subzero but also the most above normal area across the state. Farther south temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal in terms of highs at least. Tate Hazards: - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sun, Mar 31-Apr 2. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html