Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 757 PM EDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Apr 08 2023 - 12Z Wed Apr 12 2023 ...Overview with Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard Highlights... A cold upper low from the Arctic Ocean will likely meander over the western portion of mainland Alaska through the medium-range period under a rather blocky upper-level pattern across the Arctic. Model solutions are in rather good agreement on this scenario with some tendency for the upper low to slide southeastward across southwestern Alaska by early next week. Dry but much colder than normal conditions can be expected for western and southwestern Alaska through the medium-range period Temperatures may begin to recover slowly early next week if the upper low erodes some, but with increasing spread in this scenario in the longer range forecasts. Meanwhile, the southern coastal and mountainous sections of Alaska will see waves of moisture arriving from the Pacific, with the Panhandle likely experiencing the peak of the moisture surge Sunday into Monday as a cyclone edges toward the Gulf of Alaska from the south. Excessive precipitation is not expected under this modestly strong moisture plume. The next cyclone of concern appears to be moving into the western Bering Sea by about next Tuesday to Wednesday as the lead frontal system is forecast to pass through the Aleutians at a relatively quick pace. Model ensemble means are in good agreement on this system for a Day 7-8 forecast while the deterministic solutions did not diverge too badly either. The speed of the front will appear to limit the threat of heavy precipitation across the Aleutians although some high winds cannot be ruled out. The WPC Alaskan forecast package was based on a blend of 40% from the 12Z EC and EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS and GEFS, and 20% CMC and CMC mean for Days 4-6, followed by a slightly increased weights given to the ensemble means from Day 6 through Day 8. Kong Hazards: - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Tue, Apr 7-Apr 11. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html