Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 753 PM EDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 10 2023 - 12Z Fri Apr 14 2023 ...Overview with Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard Highlights... A cold upper low will meander over the western portion of mainland Alaska to begin the medium-range period under a rather blocky upper-level pattern across the Arctic. The GFS/GEFS today have come into agreement with the EC/EC mean on lifting this low slowly across northern Alaska by midweek next week before merging with another meandering Arctic low across the Canadian archipelago late next week. Dry but much colder than normal conditions can be expected for western and southwestern Alaska through next Tuesday, moderating by Wednesday as the upper low erodes. Occasional light snow is expected from the eastern mainland to the North Slope. Meanwhile, the precipitation across southern coastal and mountainous sections of Alaska into the Panhandle Monday morning will begin to taper off through the rest of Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF since yesterday have trended faster with the occluded cyclone tracking up into the Gulf of Alaska in better agreement the CMC solutions. The tighter pressure gradient associated with the faster-moving low has increased the chance of stronger gap winds off to the east of the Alaska Peninsula early on Monday. Models and ensembles continue to show relatively good agreement on the timing and evolution of the next cyclone of concern coming into the western Bering Sea by next Tuesday into Wednesday as the lead frontal system is forecast to pass through the Aleutians at a relatively quick and steady pace. A triple-point low is forecast to form over the Gulf of Alaska next Wednesday and linger in the vicinity into late next week. The forward speed of the front and the triple-point low will likely limit the threat of heavy precipitation across the Aleutians, with brief periods of high winds possible. A period of light snow can be expected across southwestern Alaska on Wednesday as the triple-point low and fronts pass through. Unsettled weather should linger into late week along the southern coastline of Alaska as the low is forecast to meander over the Gulf of Alaska. Precipitation amounts do not appear to be excessive. The WPC Alaskan forecast package was based on a blend of 40% from the 12Z EC and EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS and GEFS, and 20% CMC and CMC mean for Days 4-6, followed by a slightly increased weights given to the ensemble means from Day 7 through Day 8. Kong Hazards: - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Tue, Apr 9-Apr 11. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html