Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 634 PM EDT Fri Apr 07 2023 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 11 2023 - 12Z Sat Apr 15 2023 ...Cold pattern for much of Alaska next week and beyond... ...Overview with Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard Highlights... A cold closed upper low will meander over mainland Alaska through at least next midweek underneath a rather blocky upper-level pattern across the Arctic. System influence should weaken later next week. Expect a threat for much colder than normal conditions for western and southwest/central Alaska through midweek, moderating some later next week as the upper low erodes. Scattered occasional light snows are also expected from the Interior to the North Slope. The overall cold pattern is expected to hold for much of Alaska this April as per the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Models and ensembles continue to show relatively good agreement on the timing and evolution of the next cyclone of concern coming into the western Bering Sea by next Tuesday into Wednesday as the lead frontal system is forecast to pass through the Aleutians at a relatively quick and steady pace. A triple-point low is forecast to form over the northern Gulf of Alaska next Wednesday and linger/deepen/re-develop over the eastern Gulf into late next week as further aided by northern stream energy. The forward speed of the front and the triple-point low will likely limit the threat of heavy precipitation across the Aleutians/Alaskan Peninsula/Kodiak Island, but periods of high winds/gap winds are possible in the wake of the low. A period of light snow can be expected across southwestern Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday as the triple-point low and fronts pass through. Unsettled weather should linger into late week along the southern coastline of Alaska, but especially the Southeast Panhandle as the low is forecast to meander over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Precipitation amounts do not appear to be excessive, but should be widespread and enhanced as usual over favored terrain. The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of well clustered guidance of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian Tuesday into Wednesday to preserve as much smaller scale detail as feasible. This solution has very good ensemble support. Prefer a model and ensemble mean blended solution mid-later next week with an eye toward manual modifications applied to allow the lingering of more cold air through midweek given historical closed feature and blocky pattern nature/guidance bias. Overall though, WPC Alaskan medium range product continuity is well maintained. Schichtel Hazards: - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Wed, Apr 10-Apr 12. - High winds possible across the eastern Aleutians, Fri, Apr 14. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html