Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EST Fri Mar 06 2020

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 07 2020 - 00Z Sat Mar 14 2020

Trades are expected to increase on Friday as a strong area of high
pressure builds well north of the state. Breezy to locally windy
conditions can be expected through the weekend and into early next
week. Embedded moisture will allow mainly windward driven showers
with possibility for some lighter spillover into leeward areas
given the stronger winds. Trades should relax and begin veering to
south/southeasterly by later next week as the high pressure slides
eastward and a cold frontal boundary approaches from the west.
Models show some significant timing differences on the cold front
late next week that are tied to how quickly an upper low cuts off
several hundred miles northwest of Hawaii, and whether the low
retrogrades (per the GFS) or continues to drift eastward (per the
ECMWF). At this time, ensemble means support a solution more along
the lines of the ECMWF with little/no retrogression of the upper
low. Thus, expect some potential for the cold front to sweep into
the western Hawaiian islands by Thu and continuing eastward Thu
night. Quite a bit of uncertainty also exists as to how much deep
moisture will be transported north ahead of the front. The ECMWF
shows at least the potential for convection and heavy rains
along/ahead of the front late next week across Hawaii with PWs
rising to near 2 inches.

Ryan