Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 28 2020 - 00Z Sat Apr 04 2020

Upper high will move eastward and weaken along 40N with an upper
low to its south over the western then central islands early next
week. This will slowly drift eastward late Sun onward--quicker in
the 00Z ECMWF/Canadian, but slower in the GFS/UKMET. With
precipitable water values of 1.25-1.65" and modest CAPE/lapse
rates, heavier rain with embedded thunder is possible which could
lead to flooding concerns. 00Z hi-res guidance shows this over the
Big Island and Maui and either on or near Kauai on Saturday.

For next week, upper low will likely weaken as a deeper but still
modest upper low to the east stays east of 150W. That pattern will
support light to modest showers with an ESE low-level flow.
Another weaker trough will move in from the west around Wed with
perhaps another enhancement of showers. Prefer a model/consensus
blend approach given the smaller scale details in the period.


Fracasso