Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 27 2021 - 00Z Wed Feb 03 2021

Latest models and ensembles continue to show the heavy rain threat
over the islands tapering off from midweek onward as an upper
ridge initially to the north of the state drops south/southwest
before collapsing during the weekend.  Before this occurs, the GFS
continues to be slower than most other guidance to push the
moisture west of the northwestern islands.  Again an intermediate
solution seems reasonable based on the average of precipitable
water forecasts and the 00Z GFS trending down in rainfall amounts
a bit from the 18Z run.  Consensus indicates that lowest
precipitable water values (moderately below climatology) should
reach the state late this week followed by either steady values or
a modest and gradual rebound toward normal.  Initial surface high
pressure well north of the state and replacement by another high
will keep brisk to strong easterly trades over the area through
the weekend and possibly into Monday.  Then the high should
continue eastward while a front approaches from the west,
currently with good clustering in the guidance.  This progression
would lead to a weaker and southeastward trend for winds by next
Tuesday.  Expect the primary focus for showers to be over
windward/mountain areas through most of the period.

Rausch