Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
150 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 01 2021 - 00Z Mon Feb 08 2021

High pressure north of the state is supporting brisk weekend
trades and a windward/mountain focus for showers, but precipitable
water values are modest. Trades should weaken and trend more
southeasterly over the next few days as high pressure progresses
eastward and as a well defined cold front approaches from the
west. Guidance has been quite consistent with this scenario,
bolstering forecast confidence. Expect the front and amplified
upper troughing will reach the islands midweek, accompanied by
moderate to heavy rainfall/thunderstorms. Precipitable water
pooling on the front should exceed 1.5". The front and enhanced
instability/moisture/precipitation will work progressively through
the islands leading into a drier period. However, expect some
showers over the Big Island  later week in proximity to the slow
to dislodge main upper low/trough.

Schichtel