Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022

Valid 00Z Mon May 30 2022 - 00Z Mon Jun 06 2022

Relatively dry and quiet weather is likely over Hawaii through
this week, as an upper-level high centered east of the state
through this weekend gradually drifts westward atop Hawaii later
this week. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure is shifting
toward the northern islands, which should weaken the trade winds
and allow for afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to
set up, along with some potential for showers even over interior
and leeward areas over the next day or so. These are expected to
be only scattered and light given normal to below normal moisture
levels for the most part, after some modest moisture across Kauai
coincident with a weak upper trough and associated cloudiness. As
surface high pressure redevelops north of the islands next week,
more moderate trade winds should redevelop, making windward and
mountain areas more of a focus for limited showers that occur in
the dry, ridgy pattern. The ECMWF suite of model guidance is
showing that by next weekend, increased moisture may come in from
the north well ahead of a frontal boundary. The GFS/GEFS has this
tongue of moisture staying well north of Hawaii though, so this
will continue to be monitored.

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