Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 348 AM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Valid 00Z Sun Jun 12 2022 - 00Z Sun Jun 19 2022 Today's guidance has maintained good continuity with the overall pattern through the period, though some differences arise for upper level details mid-late week. A surface high tracking along 30N latitude from the eastern Pacific to north of the state between now and Monday should help to establish moderate to brisk trades. Then a stronger high progressing eastward over the mid-latitude Pacific (but tracking farther north along 40N latitude) and reaching northeast of the state by next Saturday should maintain at least moderate trades into next weekend. This flow will support primarily windward and mountain focus for showers through the period, though some rain could occasionally stray to other locales. Guidance shows below-climatology precipitable water values from the weekend into early next week, so anticipate mostly light to moderate rainfall overall. Impulses traveling from east to west underneath an upper ridge, such as one crossing the area during the weekend, could provide some localized enhancement. Another episode of potential enhancement would be with an area of enhanced moisture (from an old front) crossing the state around Wednesday, with highest precipitable water values being over the northwestern islands. Models/ensembles are fairly agreeable with this moisture but they seem to show greater divergence than yesterday with respect to the inverted upper trough/compact low that may track over or near the area during the latter half of the week. The full ensemble spread is so varied that it is difficult to have much confidence in any particular solution. Thus the best that can be said at this point is that there should be some degree of upper level weakness during at least a portion of the late Wednesday or Thursday through Saturday time frame. Details aloft may play some role in determining moisture levels during this part of the forecast. Rausch