Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 15 2022 - 00Z Wed Jun 22 2022

Latest guidance maintains good agreement and continuity for most
aspects of the forecast, though with some ongoing adjustments for
the compact upper low expected to track over the islands around
Thursday and then continue to a position north of the western main
islands.  High pressure tracking north of the state around midweek
will settle over 140-145W longitude by late weekend through early
next week, supporting persistent trades with windward/mountain
focus for showers which at times could stray to other locales. 
Initially light showers should trend somewhat heavier with a
well-advertised area of old frontal moisture passing through the
area (especially northern/central islands) around
Wednesday-Thursday.  Models cluster well for the compact upper low
tracking over the state from southeast to northwest around
Thursday, then reaching a little farther north as a broader
weakness aloft develops into the weekend.  The relatively lower
heights aloft should help to maintain some enhancement of showers.
 The upper low should also weaken the trades somewhat during the
latter half of the week into Saturday.  From Sunday into Tuesday
the model/mean consensus shows gradual southwestward expansion of
upper ridging northeast of the state along with a gradual rebound
of the surface gradient.  Rainfall may trend slightly lighter in
this latter time frame as moisture generally fluctuates around
near to slightly below normal values in terms of precipitable
water.

Rausch