Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 16 2022 - 00Z Thu Jun 23 2022

Mid-latitude Pacific high pressure, currently north of the state
and settling into position to the northeast from around
Sunday-Monday onward, will support typical trade weather through
the period with showers focusing over windward/mountain areas but
occasionally reaching other locations.  An area of enhanced
moisture and a compact upper low crossing the state from Wednesday
into Thursday will likely enhance rainfall to some degree.  Once
the midweek pocket of moisture departs, expect precipitable water
values to oscillate around near to slightly below normal with
relatively drier/wetter areas carried along by the trade flow. 
The upper low ultimately tracking north of the state along with
the broadening weakness around it may serve to weaken the trades
slightly during the latter half of the week through Saturday.  By
Monday-Wednesday the guidance diverges for how much the upper
ridge northeast of the state expands southwestward.  For now the
00Z GEFS/CMC means and 12Z ECMWF mean all support an evolution
somewhat closer to the latest GFS runs which show higher heights
aloft than the 00Z ECMWF.  Even with these differences aloft,
there is relative agreement that trades may rebound somewhat
during the Sunday-Wednesday period as the surface gradient
tightens a bit.

Rausch