Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Jun 17 2022 - 00Z Fri Jun 24 2022

Latest guidance is agreeable and consistent in showing a typical
trade pattern through the period, with periodic fluctuations in
wind speeds along with variations in moisture (though with mostly
near to somewhat below average precipitable water values) that
will have some influence on windward/mountain-focused showers. 
Rain may occasionally stray to other locations as well. 
Mid-latitude high pressure initially north-northeast of the state
will settle well to the northeast of the area Sunday onward, with
surrounding flow supporting the persistent trades.  A compact
upper low initially tracking northward through the islands should
continue its northward drift Friday through the weekend while a
broader surrounding upper weakness develops.  This evolution
should support modest weakening of trades and perhaps some
localized rainfall enhancement.  Albeit with detail differences
persisting, there is somewhat better agreement today that upper
ridging should build southwestward toward/over the islands early
next week while trades rebound.  Then most guidance shows ridging
aloft and the surface high to the northeast weakening somewhat,
leading to a lighter trend for winds during Wednesday-Thursday.

Rausch