Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 18 2022 - 00Z Sat Jun 25 2022

Latest guidance is agreeable and consistent in showing a typical
trade pattern through the period, with periodic fluctuations in
wind speeds along with variations in moisture (though with mostly
near to somewhat below average precipitable water values) that
will have some influence on windward/mountain-focused showers.
Mid-latitude high pressure initially north-northeast of the state
will settle well to the northeast of the area Sunday onward, with
surrounding flow supporting the persistent trades. A compact upper
low initially tracking northward through the islands should
continue its northward drift Friday through the weekend while a
broader surrounding upper weakness develops. This evolution should
support modest weakening of trades and perhaps some localized
rainfall enhancement. By early next week, models continue to show
good agreement that upper ridging should build back southwestward
toward/over the islands allow for the trades to rebound. Then most
guidance shows ridging aloft and the surface high to the northeast
weakening somewhat, leading to a lighter trend for winds later in
the week.

Santorelli