Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 05 2022 - 00Z Tue Jul 12 2022

A reasonably strong surface high well to the north of Hawaii will
maintain generally breezy to windy easterly trade winds through
the holiday, before some gradual weakening of the trades to around
moderate levels by Wednesday-Thursday. Also over the next day or
so, slightly increased moisture pulled north from a trough aloft
could increase cloud and shower coverage especially over the
central and western islands. Moisture levels are expected to drop
off through around midweek leading to a drier moderate trade wind
pattern. Then, some increase in moisture and thus cloudiness and
showers is possible during the latter half of the week, but there
are considerable model differences with this potential. The
deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble mean indicate moisture levels
could increase around Wednesday night-Thursday, but the GFS suite
shows that tongue of moisture generally staying south of the
state. Then the GFS/GEFS show better potential for above normal
moisture over the weekend than the EC suite. So timing details
will continue to be monitored. Regardless, trades may increase to
locally breezy once again by the weekend into early next week.

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