Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 19 2022 - 00Z Tue Jul 26 2022

Expect the islands to see persistent moderate to brisk trade flow
as mid-latitude high pressure to the north of the state early-mid
week settles eastward into the east-central Pacific.  Strongest
trades should be early in the week.  Moisture should be below
climatology for most of the period.  However around late week
there is still debate over the northward extent of an area of
enhanced moisture passing by to the south.  The ECMWF was on its
own yesterday in bringing some of this moisture across the state
but now the 12Z ECMWF mean also hints at that idea.  The 00Z
GFS/GEFS mean still keep the moisture more suppressed.  At that
time guidance differences for an upper weakness over and northeast
of the area do not appear to be too great, and its evolution could
provide at least a little northward pull to moisture for a time,
so a compromise solution seems reasonable.  Models/means suggest
that upper ridging will build in by Sunday-Monday.  So overall
expect mainly windward and mountain focused showers to be on the
light side in most cases, though with a possible period of
slightly higher totals and moisture straying to other locations in
the latter part of the week.

Rausch