Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 22 2022 - 00Z Fri Jul 29 2022

The models and ensemble means agree upon a persistent trade
pattern with mostly windward/mountain showers through the period,
as high pressure initially north of the state soon settles into
position over the east-central Pacific.  Trades should be moderate
to occasionally brisk from late this week into early next week and
then may weaken somewhat by Wednesday-Thursday as an upper
weakness/low reaches northeast or north of the state.  There may
be a little more potential for sea breeze influence if the
background flow weakens sufficiently.  Overall rainfall amounts
should be fairly light as guidance maintains below-climatology
precipitable water values through most of the period.  Agreement
is better than in previous days when a majority stayed dry while
one solution or another would increase moisture for a time.  There
may be some fluctuation within the light rainfall regime, with
late Sunday into Tuesday tending to be a little drier as upper
ridging passes over the area from east to west.

Rausch