Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 25 2022 - 00Z Mon Aug 01 2022

The models and ensemble means continue to agree upon a persistent
trade wind pattern with varying speeds and mostly
windward/mountain showers through the period, as surface high
pressure settles over the east-central Pacific. Trades should be
moderate to occasionally brisk into early this week and then may
weaken somewhat by Wednesday-Thursday as an upper trough/low moves
in from the east and expands over/north of the state. This may
provide a little more potential for sea breeze influence if the
background flow weakens sufficiently. Overall though, rainfall
amounts should be fairly light as guidance maintains below normal
precipitable water values into at least the middle of next week.
Some uptick in moisture is possible by later next week associated
with the upper level trough over the state, but guidance continues
to keep the best rainfall well north of the state. As the trough
passes to the north and west, and ridging builds back in over the
islands, trade winds should increase again to modestly breezy
speeds next weekend.

Santorelli