Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
150 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 31 2022 - 00Z Sun Aug 7 2022

The upper trough axis currently north of Hawaii will continue
retreating westward over the next few days, followed by a large
upper ridge building in near 40N by late Sunday into early next
week, along with an anomalous surface high.  The ensemble means
agree on an easterly wave tracking towards the Big Island by the
middle of the week, perhaps evolving into a closed upper low.

Trade winds are likely to increase going into Sunday and lasting
through Tuesday as a tighter surface pressure gradient develops
from the big high to the north.  There should be some abatement in
the flow going into the Wednesday through Friday time period as
the trough moves in aloft.  In terms of rainfall, typically trade
enhanced showers will be the norm through Tuesday, with perhaps
greater coverage of showers for Wednesday and Thursday from Oahu
to the Big Island.

Hamrick