Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 10 2022 - 00Z Wed Aug 17 2022

Trade winds are forecast to continue to strengthen over the next
couple of days to breezy to locally windy levels, with possible
windward and mauka showers. This is in conjunction with the
Pacific surface high well to the north of Hawaii in the Pacific
drifting south, while low pressure is likely to track south of
Hawaii. There are currently only low chances for the surface low
to develop into a tropical cyclone, but regardless it will help
strengthen the pressure gradient and thus the easterly winds for
Hawaii. Less certain is the possibility for enhanced moisture to
come into the state later this week, streaming in from the
tropics. While the highest moisture anomalies should stay south of
the state in the vicinity of the tropical lows, some increased
moisture looks like it could reach the Big Island by Wednesday
night-Thursday, especially according to the ECMWF and EC mean, and
possibly spreading into the rest of the islands through the latter
part of the week. Though still uncertain because Hawaii could be
on one side or the other of the moisture gradient, if this
increased moisture does reach the state, a wetter pattern with
more shower coverage would be expected. By the weekend into early
next week, trades may decrease somewhat and a drier pattern is
likely.

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