Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 11 2022 - 00Z Thu Aug 18 2022

Trade winds are forecast to remain quite strong over the next
couple of days, in conjunction with the Pacific surface high well
to the north of Hawaii in the Pacific drifting south, while low
surface pressure or at least troughing is likely to track south of
Hawaii. There are currently only low chances for a surface low to
develop into a tropical cyclone, but regardless it will help
strengthen the pressure gradient and thus the strong easterly
winds for Hawaii. This plus a relatively dry pattern with normal
to below normal moisture levels has led to the issuance of Red
Flag Warnings for portions of many of the islands. The dryness
should also limit shower coverage, but some windward and mauka
showers are possible. Model guidance has been persistent in
showing the bulk of the tropical moisture should stay south of the
state, and now models show even the northern edge of increased
moisture may stay south as well, maintaining the relatively dry
pattern. As this low moves away, trade winds should decrease to
moderate to locally breezy levels. There is some chance for
moisture to increase around the middle of next week, so this will
continue to be monitored.

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