Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 12 2022 - 00Z Fri Aug 19 2022

The combination of a Pacific surface high well to the north of
Hawaii and a tropical disturbance to the south has tightened up
the pressure gradient to produce windy trades over the state. This
plus a relatively dry pattern with normal to below normal moisture
levels has led to the issuance of Red Flag Warnings for leeward
portions of many of the islands. As the tropical low pressure
moves west and the surface high weakens late week, trade winds are
forecast to moderate somewhat to breezy levels. The relatively dry
pattern is forecast to last through early next week, limiting
shower coverage, but some windward and mauka showers are possible.
There is some chance for moisture to increase around
Monday-Wednesday of next week according to model guidance, but
models have also shown some periods of moist inflow from the
tropics over the past week that have not happened, so there is low
confidence for this, but it will continue to be monitored.

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