Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 23 2022 - 00Z Tue Aug 30 2022

Latest guidance is consistent with the shorter term evolution as
an amplifying upper trough and associated front north of the state
erode the initial surface ridge, leading to weaker trades and more
land/sea breeze influence on showers through Wednesday or
Thursday.  A band of enhanced moisture will also cross the area
from east to west during Tuesday-Wednesday, likely increasing
rainfall totals somewhat.  From late week onward, guidance is
gradually improving in terms of clustering and continuity. 
Consensus still shows an upper low dropping along a path well
north/northwest of the state Thursday into the weekend and then
retrograding farther away.  Guidance agrees that this track should
allow for westward building of eastern Pacific high pressure from
late week onward, thus supporting a rebound in trades and
windward/mountain shower focus especially during next weekend. 
Winds may slacken a bit next Monday.  There is still uncertainty
over one or more upper level impulses and progressive pockets of
deep moisture that could influence specifics of rainfall but these
have low predictability due to their small scale.

Rausch