Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 24 2022 - 00Z Wed Aug 31 2022

The models and ensembles are stable with the short term part of
the forecast and have finally settled into a fairly consistent
depiction of the large scale pattern through the rest of the
period.  Into Wednesday or Thursday expect a regime of fairly
light southeasterly trades as upper troughing and a surface front
north of the state lead to weak surface ridging just north of the
islands.  There should be some sea/land breeze influence on
showers and a surface trough moving across the area from east to
west will alter low level flow as well.  A band of enhanced
moisture passing through Tuesday-Wednesday may increase rainfall
totals at some locations.  From late week through the weekend
expect an eastern Pacific ridge at the surface and aloft to build
westward behind a retrograding upper low well northwest of the
state, with the surface ridge persisting to some degree through
next Tuesday.  This ridge will promote a period of stronger trades
(especially during the weekend) and windward focused showers. 
Small scale continues to suggest low predictability for one or
more upper level impulses and progressive pockets of deep moisture
that could influence specifics of rainfall.  There is a developing
consensus on a modest band of higher moisture crossing the area
around Friday-Saturday but detail confidence decreases thereafter.
  

Rausch