Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 25 2022 - 00Z Thu Sep 01 2022

Models and ensemble solutions continue to offer a fairly
consistent depiction of the large scale pattern through the next
week, bolstering overall forecast confidence. Expect a regime of
fairly light trades into Thursday as upper troughing and a surface
front north of the state lead to weak surface ridging just north
of the islands. Land/sea breeze influences and some moisture
passing through may enhance rainfall at a few locations. From late
week through the weekend expect an eastern Pacific ridge at the
surface and aloft to build westward behind a retrograding upper
low well northwest of the state, with the surface ridge persisting
to some degree into Tuesday. This ridge will promote a period of
stronger trades (especially during the weekend) and windward
focused showers. Small scale continues to suggest low
predictability for one or more upper level impulses and
progressive pockets of moisture that could influence rainfall in
this period. A decent guidance signal in support of robust upper
trough amplification down through the east-central North Pacific
may again lead to disrupted trade flow into the Hawaiian Islands
heading into next midweek.

Schichtel