Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 26 2022 - 00Z Fri Sep 02 2022

Today's models agree well for the overall pattern evolution
through next Thursday.  The current period of light trades and
some land/sea breeze focus for showers will transition to stronger
trades and more windward shower emphasis from Friday into the
weekend as eastern Pacific high pressure builds westward. 
Consensus shows a band of enhanced moisture crossing the islands
around Friday/early Saturday, possibly increasing rainfall totals.
 A compact upper low should also track over the area during the
weekend.  There is some debate as to whether its continued motion
west of the island could briefly raise moisture levels early-mid
week.  At the moment the 00Z ECMWF shows this to a greater degree
than the 00Z GFS/GEFS mean and 12Z ECMWF mean.  Otherwise
precipitable water values should tend to be near to below
climatology from later Saturday onward.  Meanwhile the brisk
trades during the weekend will trend lighter for Monday-Wednesday
as an upper trough and associated cold front to the north weaken
the surface ridge.  Another surface high building in behind the
front will likely support a rebound in the trades from late
Wednesday through Thursday.

Rausch