Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Fri Sep 09 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 10 2022 - 00Z Sat Sep 17 2022

A reasonably weak pressure gradient at the surface is forecast
over Hawaii through the weekend during a transition period of
surface highs over the Pacific--one well northeast of Hawaii
should weaken as another drifts slowly eastward into the more
typical position north of the state. This will promote weak trade
winds over the next few days, with a hybrid pattern of land/sea
breezes and trades, and thus some clouds and showers possible in
windward areas but also in leeward areas where sea breezes set up.
The trade winds should strengthen somewhat to moderate levels by
around Monday, causing showers to focus in windward areas. Some
model guidance has been showing increased moisture surging north
toward Hawaii and possibly into at least the Big Island around
Monday or Tuesday of next week and perhaps lingering for a couple
of days. There is considerable uncertainty with whether the
northern extent of the moisture would reach Hawaii and thus the
possibility for enhanced rainfall over the islands, so this will
continue to be monitored.

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