Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 17 2022 - 00Z Sat Sep 24 2022

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that the retrogressive
passage of deep layered closed low to the north of the state over
the next couple of days will act to disrupt trades. Modest pooling
moisture may fuel a few local and land/sea boundary downpours
until upper ridging settles overtop the islands during the weekend
to limit activity despite an emerging windward terrain focusing
rainfall pattern with the rebuilding of moderate trades as high
pressure becomes established into early-mid next week over the
east-central Pacific. Guidance also shows a signal supporting the
digging of additional upper trough energies to the northwest and
north of the state mid-later next week that would again disrupt
trades, but with an associated rainfall focusing front well to the
northwest this period. There is room for ampification given the
upstream upper ridge position/strength and recent flow history.

Schichtel