Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 19 2022 - 00Z Mon Sep 26 2022

Upper ridging settling over the islands should act to limit shower
activity to most favored windward terrain as trades rebuild to
moderate levels as high pressure becomes established through
midweek over the east-central Pacific. Better than normal model
and ensemble agreement strongly indicates that the later week
digging of potent upper trough/closed low energies to the
northwest of the state will disrupt trades and hold a
rainfall/moisture focusing system to the northwest of the state
into next weekend in amplified flow. There seems reasonable given
the upstream upper ridge position/amplitude and recent flow
history, but trade response over the islands may allow some deeper
moisture to feed into the state to fuel some local showers.

Schichtel