Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 20 2022 - 00Z Tue Sep 27 2022

Upper ridging settling over the islands for the next few days
should act to limit shower activity to most favored windward
terrain as trades rebuild to moderate levels as high pressure
becomes established through midweek over the east-central Pacific.
Better than normal model and ensemble agreement strongly indicates
that the later week digging of potent upper trough/closed low
energies to the northwest of the state will disrupt trades and
hold a rainfall/moisture focusing system to the northwest of the
state into next weekend in amplified flow. This still seems
reasonable given the upstream upper ridge position/amplitude and
recent flow history, but trade response over the islands may allow
some deeper moisture to feed into the state to fuel some local
showers as flow re-emerges into Sunday/next Monday in the wake of
system passage.

Schichtel