Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 21 2022 - 00Z Wed Sep 28 2022

Upper ridging over the islands into midweek should act to limit
shower activity to most favored windward terrain in a pattern with
near moderate trades as per east-central Pacific high pressure.
Better than average model and ensemble agreement strongly
indicates that later week digging of potent upper trough/closed
low energies and enhanced rainfall/convection will focus well to
the northwest of the state, but trade response over the islands
may allow some deeper moisture to feed/linger over the state into
the weekend to fuel some local showers/downpours. There is a
growing guidance signal that strong upper trough amplification
well to the north of the state may drive a moisture/convection
pooling and trade disrupting front down to the north of the state
early next week.

Schichtel