Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 22 2022 - 00Z Thu Sep 29 2022

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that the sharp digging of
potent upper trough/closed low energies over the next few days
will focus associated enhanced rains/convection well to the
northwest of the state, but the trade veering response over the
islands will allow deeper moisture to feed/linger over the state
into the weekend to fuel some local showers/downpours in a pattern
with slightly weakened flow. The GFS/ECMWF and Caandian solutions
seem best clustered. Later, there remains a growing guidance
signal that strong upper trough amplification well to the north of
the state by early next week will drive a moisture/convection
pooling and trade disrupting front to the north of the islands
into early-mid next week.

Schichtel