Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 23 2022 - 00Z Fri Sep 30 2022

Models and ensembles still reasonably agree that the sharp
southwestward digging of potent upper trough/closed low energies
over the next couple of days will focus associated enhanced
rains/convection well to the northwest of the state, but the trade
veering response over the islands will allow deeper moisture to
feed/linger over the state into the weekend to fuel some local
showers/downpours in a pattern with slightly weakened flow. Later,
there is a growing guidance signal that strong upper trough
amplification well to the north of the state by early next week
will drive a moisture/convection pooling and trade disrupting
front to the north of the islands into early-mid next week before
stalling. There certainly seems ample room for upper trough
amplification given upstream upper ridge amplitude over the
mid-latitudes of the west-central Pacific as common to most
guidance.

Schichtel