Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 25 2022 - 00Z Sun Oct 02 2022

The models and ensembles continue to show similar ideas for the
forecast pattern through the next seven days.  Flow around the
southwest periphery of eastern Pacific high pressure will support
southeasterly low level winds on average through most of the
weekend, with background flow sufficiently light at times to allow
for land/sea breezes.  Precipitable water values will tend to be
near to slightly above normal.  An upper ridge building
over/northwest of the main islands during the weekend may lead to
a gradual decrease in rainfall from shower activity.

Guidance still shows a return to more typical trades next week. 
Winds may be on the lighter side early-mid week due in part to a
front settling down to 25-30N latitude, but could increase to
moderate levels later in the week as the front weakens and central
Pacific high pressure reaches north of the state.  Models/means
still show a decrease in precipitable water values relative to the
weekend.  For a while the driest air is likely to be over the
southeastern islands while the far southern periphery of moisture
associated with the front to the north could keep precipitable
water values above climatology over the far northwest.  By late
week the means display a general axis of below normal moisture
over the state while the GFS/ECMWF depict fluctuations in response
to low-predictability details of impulses aloft and pockets of
moisture carried by the trades.  Thus expect the majority of rain
next week to be on the light side and with general
windward/mountain focus but with some potential for modest
localized enhancement at times.

Rausch