Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 01 2022 - 00Z Sat Oct 08 2022

Upper ridging over Hawaii late this week should shift to the west
as an upper low closes off well to the northeast of the state and
slowly drifts south and east into early next week. At the surface,
trade winds should remain mostly on the lighter side ahead of a
couple of cold fronts shifting south and dissipating over the
state. Showers into at least early next week may be from a
combination of windward/mountain focus as well as sea breeze
influence as near or slightly above normal moisture shifts
southward. The cold front/fronts should support some additional
enhanced/widespread rainfall across parts of the main island
chain, although there is still some lingering uncertainty
regarding how far south this moisture reaches.

By the middle to latter part of next week, the upper low should
finally weaken and move to the east/northeast as another deep
upper low settles just south of the Gulf of Alaska, again sending
a cold front south towards Hawaii. There are greater differences
by this period on amplification/timing of the trough and how much
influence it has on sensible weather across Hawaii. Prefer a
solution closer to the ensemble means at this time. Regardless,
trade winds look to remain light and variable into next weekend
with continued land and sea breeze influenced showers,
particularly for leeward areas.

Santorelli