Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 02 2022 - 00Z Sun Oct 09 2022

A blocky upper ridge building over the West Coast of the U.S. will
keep a closed upper low mostly stationary in the northeast Pacific
through about the middle of next week. At the surface, trade winds
over Hawaii should remain mostly on the lighter side ahead of a
cold front or two shifting southward and eventually dissipating
over the state. At this surface, trade winds should weaken in
response to these fronts as showers at least this weekend should
be from a combination of windward/mountain focus as well as sea
breeze influence. The cold front passage though should bring some
more enhanced and widespread showers into the middle of next week.
Through the rest of the week, showers should become more
scattered, except across parts of the Big Island as an area of
high moisture moves in from the east. The models show good
agreement on this overall set up, until later in the week once the
first upper low weakens as another deep upper low settles in well
to the north. Models show some more differences in terms of
placement of this low and how far south its attendant cold front
reaches, and whether it will have any influence at all on Hawaii,
but a blend of the ensemble means seems to be a good starting
point at this time.

Santorelli