Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EDT Sun Oct 02 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 03 2022 - 00Z Mon Oct 10 2022

A blocky upper ridge building over the West Coast of the U.S. will
keep a closed upper low/trough mostly stationary in the northeast
Pacific through early this week before it weakens and lifts north
in favor of a stronger low dropping in from the near Alaska. At
the surface, trade winds over Hawaii should remain mostly on the
lighter side most of the week. A cold front moving south over the
region today will linger through about Tuesday, with more enhanced
and widespread showers expected. After this front dissipates, an
area of tropical moisture will move in from the east this week,
likely increasing rainfall across especially the Big Island later
this week/weekend. The models show good agreement this second
upper low (originating from the Bering Sea) will eventually settle
to the north of Hawaii by Friday, although the 02/00z GFS is much
quicker to eject this trough to the northeast next weekend
compared to the CMC, ECMWF, and the ensemble means, likely a
result of blockier ridging over the East Pacific/West Coast.

Santorelli