Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 AM EDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 04 2022 - 00Z Tue Oct 11 2022

A closed low currently to the northeast of Hawaii today will
weaken and shift northward. The associated cold front will
eventually dissipate into Tuesday over the state with east to
northeast trade winds returning behind. Behind this system,
another deep closed low will move across the Alaska Peninsula with
guidance showing good agreement it should shift due south to about
40N before becoming nearly stationary the rest of the
week/weekend, due to a blocky ridge setting up downstream over the
western U.S., although its cold front looks to remain just to the
north of Hawaii. Meanwhile, an area of tropical moisture is
forecast to move in from the east this week, setting up a wet
pattern later this week across the Big Island and possibly Maui as
well. Models overall show very good agreement in this pattern
set-up over/near Hawaii the next week. The main uncertainties lie
with the exact placement of the upper low north of Hawaii (and
whether this cold front sags south enough to affect at least the
northern islands), but these are details which could until the
short range period to resolve. A blend of the ensemble means later
in the period should provide a good starting point for now.

Santorelli