Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EDT Tue Oct 04 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 05 2022 - 00Z Wed Oct 12 2022

Initial troughing north of Hawaii today will continue to weaken
and shift off to the northeast as the associated cold front
dissipates this evening over the state. Trade winds should shift
back to the east-northeast helping to focus mainly windward and
mountain showers. Behind this system, another deep closed low will
move into the north Pacific from Alaska today/Wednesday with
guidance showing good agreement it should shift due south to about
35N before becoming nearly stationary the rest of the
week/weekend, due to a blocky ridge setting up downstream over the
western U.S. and eastern Pacific. Guidance has trended south with
this low over the past day suggesting the cold front may reach far
enough south to bring more enhanced showers to parts of Hawaii,
aided by an area of tropical moisture moving in from the East. By
early next week, there is more uncertainty on how quickly the low
lifts back out to the northeast with some models suggesting it
could hang on north of Hawaii for almost a weeks time. 

Santorelli