Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
102 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 6 2022 - 00Z Thu Oct 13 2022

An anomalous, deep closed low will slowly drift southward from the
Gulf of Alaska and reaching the general vicinity of 35-40 degrees
north by Saturday, and then remaining quasi-stationary for a few
days as it remains stuck behind a ridge axis to its east.  The
southward trend in the model guidance has leveled off over the
past few runs, and the trailing stationary front should be close
enough to the state to generate additional showers and storms for
the central and northern Islands. 

The overall model consensus for early next week is for the upper
low to linger through Monday, and then eventually get absorbed by
an amplifying trough to its northwest starting Tuesday, with the
GFS tending to delay this a little.  The CMC and ECMWF are hinting
at another closed upper low developing northwest of the state by
next Wednesday.  In terms of trade winds, the general col in the
surface high and the proximity of the front will tend to result in
lighter winds and more of a southeasterly component at times.

Hamrick