Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
116 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 7 2022 - 00Z Fri Oct 14 2022

An anomalous, deep closed low will slowly drift southward from the
Gulf of Alaska and reaching the general vicinity of 35-40 degrees
north by Saturday, and then remaining quasi-stationary through
about Tuesday as it remains stuck behind a ridge axis to its east.
 The trailing stationary front should be close enough to the state
to generate some additional showers and storms for the central and
northern Islands, although the heaviest rain should still be
across the windward terrain of the Big Island.

The overall model consensus for early next week is for the upper
low to linger through early Tuesday before eventually getting
absorbed by an amplifying trough to its northwest.  The ensemble
means are suggesting another closed upper low/trough will likely
develop northwest of the state by next Wednesday/Thursday as the
blocking ridge just off the West Coast of the U.S. remains
anchored in place.  In terms of trade winds, the general col in
the surface high and the proximity of the front will tend to
result in lighter winds than normal for most of the upcoming week
and more of a southeasterly component at times. 

Hamrick