Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 13 2022 - 00Z Thu Oct 20 2022

A trough with an embedded closed low is expected to be in place
north of Hawaii, generally near 35 degrees north, through early
Friday before lifting out, and this will bring a cold front
potentially as far south as Maui and Oahu on Friday.  Upper level
ridging is expected to build back in across the state by this
weekend.  By the early-middle part of next week, there is a
growing signal in the guidance for another mid-latitude trough
approaching the northwestern Islands, with the GEFS mean a bit
more progressive than the EC mean by this time.

In terms of trade winds, the general col in the surface high
through the end of the week and the proximity of the front will
tend to result in lighter and more variable winds with some sea
breeze showers at times south of the boundary, but the deepest
tropical moisture and rainfall should remain south of the state. 
With the front reaching the central Islands late in the week,
there will likely be more of a northerly wind component that will
eventually veer to the northeast and then east by next Sunday.

Hamrick