Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 15 2022 - 00Z Sat Oct 22 2022

A frontal boundary located over Hawaii is forecast to dissipate
over the next day or so, but could provide a focus for clouds and
showers before it does, particularly over Maui and the Big Island.
Generally northeast winds are expected behind the front over the
weekend, along with a drying trend for comparatively limited
shower coverage, which should last into early next week.

The pattern may become notably more active but also increasingly
uncertain by the latter half of next week. Upper troughing moving
across the Pacific is forecast to split energy off into a closed
upper low by Wednesday or Thursday to the north of the state
(perhaps around 30N) but with considerable spread in its position
among models and ensembles. Recent ECMWF runs have been
consistently farther west of the consensus of other guidance,
showing this closed low northwest of Hawaii rather than
north-northeast. The ECMWF runs are supported by some of the EC
ensemble members but few members from the GFS and CMC
model/ensemble suites. The spread with this feature makes the
sensible weather forecast uncertain, namely the track of a surface
front and thus the potential for an axis of increased moisture
ahead of it and the wind directions across the state. Thus we will
continue to monitor how the forecast evolves over the next several
days.

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