Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 16 2022 - 00Z Sun Oct 23 2022

Some enhanced showers and clouds are possible in the near term as
a front dissipates across Hawaii. Behind this dying front,
generally northeast winds are expected into early next week, along
with a drier airmass and a ridge aloft for comparatively limited
shower coverage. Weather should remain on the drier side through
Monday-Tuesday, though with some increased clouds in favored areas
for a sea breeze/land breeze pattern as background wind speeds
weaken.

By around midweek and beyond, the pattern may become notably more
active but also increasingly uncertain. Upper troughing moving
across the Pacific is forecast to split energy off into a closed
upper low by Wednesday or Thursday to the north of the state
(perhaps around 30-35N) but with considerable spread in its
west-east position among models and ensembles. ECMWF runs continue
to be on the western side of the spread with the placement of the
upper low, though less dramatically than a day or so ago, as some
other models/ensembles have trended somewhat westward. While the
details remain quite variable, there is a general idea for a front
to track through some of the islands and then perhaps stall and
retreat northward for the latter part of the week, providing a
focus for moisture and increased coverage of showers that could
persist into next weekend. The forecast will continue to be
refined with time as model guidance hopefully comes into better
agreement.


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