Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 20 2022 - 00Z Thu Oct 27 2022

A wetter and more active pattern is forecast for Hawaii over the
next few days as an upper low drifts slowly southwestward just to
the north of the state, while at the surface a cold front tracks
across the western islands and stalls, providing a focus for
moisture to pool and showers to form. Model guidance such as the
HREF shows a band of showers should move across Kauai and then
Oahu with the front and eventually into Maui and the surrounding
islands by Wednesday night. Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds
are forecast on the backside of the front. Showers should begin to
lift back northwest on Thursday as the upper low retreats west
along with remnants of the front, while winds are likely to be
reduced as well. Meanwhile south of the front such as across the
Big Island, light winds are expected allowing for land and sea
breezes to form, with clouds and showers in those favored areas
for the next couple of days. Over the weekend the upper low will
lift away and more typical moderate to breezy trade wind flow
should return as a Pacific surface high also builds to the north
by early next week. A period of increased moisture is possible
late Friday into Saturday as moisture is pulled north from the
ITCZ, which could increase shower coverage in windward areas
particularly for the Big Island, where moisture is most likely to
reach.

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