Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 22 2022 - 00Z Sat Oct 29 2022

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that the major/wet closed
low now just to the northwest of the state will rotate away from
the island into the mid-latitudes over the next few days. The void
should be filled by upper ridging slated to slide over the state
and linger through the at least the middle of next week. This
pattern allows strong surface high pressure to build to the
northeast of the state through the weekend into early next week to
be followed by broad strong high pressure ridging to build/bridge
to the north of the islands for the rest of the period. This will
favor re-emerging trade flow that could tap lingering moisture to
fuel some weekend showers increasingly to focus over favored
windward terrain. Expect moderately to brisk trades next week, but
more limited activity under the stabilizing upper ridge. There is
some guidance signal to dig upper trough energies into the east
side of this ridge, possibly reaching the state later next week to
monitor for influence in the coming days.

Schichtel