Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 24 2022 - 00Z Mon Oct 31 2022

A favored composite of reasonably well clustered guidance overall
agrees that upper ridging now settling over the state should
persist through midweek. Surface high pressure to the northeast of
the state over the next few days should favor emerging moderate
trade flow into the islands that may focus modest shower activity
to favored windward terrain. Broader high pressure is then slated
to build/bridge to the north of the islands later week through
next weekend and act to ramp trades to moderate to brisk levels.
Meanwhile, there is a growing and reasonable guidance signal to
then work upper trough/system energies down into the east side of
this ridge and over the state in this period. This seems to favor
a growing connection to deeper tropical moisture for the trades to
fuel a more active shower pattern to include some locally enhanced
downpours over favored windward terrain under the less stable and
emerging weakness/trough pattern aloft.

Schichtel