Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 25 2022 - 00Z Tue Nov 01 2022

A favored composite of reasonably well clustered guidance still
overall agrees that upper ridging now settling over the state
should persist through midweek. Surface high pressure to the
northeast of the state should favor emerging moderate trade flow
into the islands early week to focus modest shower activity to
favored windward terrain. Broader/stronger high pressure is then
slated to bridge to the north then northeast of the islands
through the rest of the period and act to ramp trades to moderate
to brisk mean levels. Meanwhile, there is a growing and reasonable
guidance signal to work upper trough/system energies down into the
ridge later week onward. This seems to favor a growing connection
to deeper tropical moisture for the trades to fuel a more active
shower pattern to include some locally enhanced downpours over
favored windward terrain under the less stable and emerging
weakness/trough pattern aloft.

Schichtel