Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 26 2022 - 00Z Wed Nov 02 2022

A still favored composite of reasonably well clustered guidance
overall agrees that upper ridging now over the state should
persist through Wednesday. Surface high pressure to the northeast
of the state should favor near moderate trade flow into the
islands to focus modest shower activity to favored windward
terrain. Strong high pressure is then slated to bridge to the
north then northeast of the islands through later this week into
next week and act to ramp trades to moderate to brisk mean levels.
Meanwhile, guidance gradually shunts the ridge westward with the
working of upper trough/system energies down into/near the state
Thursday onward. This seems to favor a growing connection to
deeper tropical moisture for the trades to fuel a more active
shower pattern to include some locally enhanced downpours over
favored windward terrain under the less stable and emerging
weakness/trough pattern aloft. This scenario seems evidenced in
most guidance, bolstering overall flow pattern transition forecast
confidence.

Schichtel