Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 27 2022 - 00Z Thu Nov 03 2022

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that surface high pressure
to the northeast of the state today will continue to favor
moderate/breezy trade flow into the islands that is providing a
focus for modest shower activity over favored windward terrain,
limited under an upper ridge. Guidance still gradually shunts the
ridge westward with the working of upper trough/system energies
down into/near the state Thursday into next week. This should
temperarily weaken trades a bit and favor some connection to
deeper tropical moisture to fuel a more active shower pattern to
include some locally enhanced downpours over favored windward
terrain under the less stable and emerging weakness/trough pattern
aloft. Strong high pressure is meanwhile during this period slated
to bridge to the north then northeast of the islands later this
week into next and act to revamp trades to moderate to brisk mean
levels. 

Schichtel